# 226, What to expect by 2039?

Also per Stratfor, forecasting world events is a difficult task that takes guts and discipline. Though you can find endless scenarios in a number of places, the same people that predicted, in 2002, the EU crisis; and in 2010, the U.S.-Iranian negotiations – focuses on countries’ constraints, which eliminates the impossibilities down to a likely path.

Here are a few things to be seen ahead by 2039:

• The United States will continue to be the leading economic power.
• Conflict in the Middle East will continue, but the United States will take a much more hands-off approach in the region.
• German and Russian interests will align, trading natural gas and technology, and could potentially threaten Washington's global strategy.
• Mexico will become an industrial powerhouse by taking low-level production from China and monetizing its energy sector.
• China will continue to face more internal tension and slower economic growth.

# 225, Stratfor trends for 2014

225. George Friedman and the smart minds around him have compiled the top 5 trends that will shape 2014.

I feel comfortable casting the highlights without much change:

• An enduring detente between Iran and the United States
• The rise of nationalist and extremist parties in Europe
• Russia and Germany bargain over Central/Eastern Europe and energy policy
• China's return to strongman politics
• Domestic turmoil and economic stress in India and Turkey

The United States will attempt to balance power in the Middle East through its strategic negotiations with Iran; the rise of nationalist and euroskeptic parties will be felt in this upcoming year’s elections; the Chinese president will continue to consolidate more power under himself. Barely missing the list but still notable: the end of the FARC insurgency in Colombia, escalating violence in Nigeria, and Mexico's return to political gridlock.